Detrimental Education

On 60 Minutes, President Bush unveils his new title: Educator-in-Chief.

Pelley: How can you escalate the war when so many people in this country seem to be against it?

Bush: Uh, I, uh, I'm going to have to keep explaining. That's why I'm doing this interview with you. Uh, Scott, uh, sometimes you're the commander-in-chief, sometimes you're the educator-in-chief, and a lot of times you're both when it comes to war. (smile)

Say what you will about George W. Bush, he sure has given Americans quite an education on Iraq.

Judgment in the Green Zone

A final word on Saddam Hussein.

Oh Happy Day

For once, it seems I got one right. The Dems have won the House and possibly--maybe even probably--the Senate as well.

The race of the night? Webb-Allen for Virginia's Senate seat. The moment of the night? Hands down, it was Webb's bold declaration of victory, with a slim 2000 vote lead out of 2 million cast, just moments after Allen gave a typical, this-race-goes-on-tomorrow speech.

Webb's coup de theatre showed that the Dems have finally learned some lessons from '00 and '04. There may be a recount fight, but he's already framed himself as the winner.

If this result holds, and Jon Tester maintains his slim lead in Montana, my Senate predictions will (for once) end up right on the money.

The triumph in the House is as decisive as the one in the Senate is tenuous. We've picked up 26 or so seats, well above the 15 we needed, with enough still undecided to edge toward my prediction of 34. The only thing that would make my evening complete would be to see Darcy Burner claw into the lead for Washington's 8th District. But that will have to wait until morning.

First Exit Polls

Straight from the Horse's Ass.

No source is given, and we've been burned before, BUT:

This is very much in line with my predictions below, so I'm postin' it.

Democrats leading:

Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)

Prediction Time

I'm back from an extended blogging break to offer some predictions on today's election (as usual, based on a lot of data but undoubtedly skewed by my inveterate optimism):

HOUSE (currently GOP 231, Dems 202, 2 vacancies)

Outcome: Dems 236, GOP 199
Dems +34, GOP -34

Pickups will include WA-08 (Seattle's eastern suburbs), where we've been working tirelessly (OK, occasionally) for challenger Darcy Burner, who will hopefully oust incumbent Dave Reichert in a tight race.

In the aftermath, House GOP leadership will be ousted by their own caucus. Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker in January. Fresh from securing the victory, look for DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel to grab the Majority Whip position.

SENATE (currently GOP 55, Dems 44, Ind 1)
Outcome: Dems 49, GOP 49, Ind 2 (Sanders and Lieberman) Dems +5, Ind +1, GOP -6

Specifically (incumbents in CAPS):

Pennsylvania: Casey (D) beats SANTORUM (R)
Montana: Tester (D) beats BURNS (R)
Ohio: Brown (D) beats DEWINE (R)
Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) beats CHAFEE (R)
Virginia: Webb (D) beats ALLEN (R)

I'm fairly confident about these five pickups. All Dem incumbents will win (including Menendez in NJ) and we will hold on to D open seats (although Cardin may have a narrow margin over Steele in MD). I do not see us taking TN or AZ, although these could be closer than expected. Control of the Senate will therefore come down to:

Missouri: McCaskill (D) beats TALENT (R)

This one will go down to the wire and may not be decided tonight.

Assuming that Lieberman keeps his promise (heh heh) to caucus with the Ds, that would give us 51-49 control. If not, or if I'm wrong about any of the races above, then there's a 50-50 split, with Dick Cheney breaking the tie in favor of continued GOP control. The problem for the Ds is that we have to win three or four very tight races, and with TN fading, there's not much in the second tier that could step up an bail us out in a pinch. So though I'm optimistically predicting control of the Senate, there's a strong possibility we end up on the short end of a tie.

GOVERNORS (currently GOP 28, Dems 22)
Outcome: Dems 27, GOP 23 (Dems +5)

Notable pickups include NY and OH. (AND the OH Secretary of State's office -- remember this in '08).

There's lots of voter suppression, deceptive robocalls, electronic voting machine hijinks, etc. The GOP hasn't met a dirty trick they won't use in this election. So that's the X factor. I'm hoping it won't sway any critical outcomes.

Keep in mind that I confidently predicted Kerry would win 303 electoral votes. So apply liberal amounts of sodium chloride and keep your fingers crossed.

People Get Ready

Al Gore is going to rock your world.

See the trailer.

The Road Not Taken

Maybe it's all been a bad dream.

Wake up to Al Gore's America.

Epistle to the Washingtonians

I based a lot of my foreign policy decisions on some things that I think are true. One, I believe there's an Almighty, and secondly, I believe one of the great gifts of the Almighty is the desire in everybody's soul, regardless of what you look like or where you live, to be free.

-President George W. Bush, address in Irvine, California, April 24, 2006

Liberalism and Western style democracy have not been able to help realize the ideals of humanity. Today these two concepts have failed. Those with insight can already hear the sounds of the shattering and fall of the ideology and thoughts of the liberal democratic systems. We increasingly see that people around the world are flocking towards a main focal point – that is the Almighty God. Undoubtedly through faith in God and the teachings of the prophets, the people will conquer their problems. My question for you is : Do you not want to join them?

-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, letter to George W. Bush, May 2006

I'm not sure why the Administration has so far declined to release the text of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's lengthy personal letter to George W. Bush. If nothing else, the first official communication from a leader of Iran to America in twenty-seven years is a matter of some public interest. And surely there is plenty of material here to discredit Ahmadinejad, from the rambling style and half-baked theological reasoning to his "educated guess" that the 9/11 attacks would been have impossible without the complicity of U.S. intelligence agencies. (He evidently has more faith in the efficacy of our government than I do. And I'm a liberal.)

In any event, Le Monde has it here first.

Obviously, Ahmadinejad has a lot he wants to talk about, though not much, alas, about Iran's nuclear program. And the central tactic that emerges from his tangled discourse -- challenging Bush to live up to his Christian ideals -- is both clever and probably sincerely felt. Ahmadinejad wants to show Bush how many beliefs they have in common (God should be at the center of our lives, politics is about achieving the Almighty's purposes, we all venerate Jesus, etc.). Whether we should be reassured or alarmed by all this is unclear.

One cannot feel anything but reassured by reports that Ahmadinejad is not really in control in Iran, that he is a loose cannon without any power. It's not that he fails to pose some worthy questions to our president, or that he relies on revelation rather than reason (we're getting used to that in a leader). It's just that the letter has the quality of notes jotted down on a dinner napkin, or a late-night blogging session. It shows no evidence of having been slept on -- let alone vetted by the Iranian Foreign Ministry -- before he clicked "send."

Oddly enough, the dialogue of civilizations proposed by Ahmadinejad has a faith-based frame that should be right up George W. Bush's alley. Surely the president has been interpreting God's will long enough to offer a divinely inspired riposte. Perhaps he could even challenge Ahmadinejad's Iran to live up to Muslim ideals.

As for a defense of reason, tolerance and Enlightenment values, we will probably have to wait for the next president.