Prediction Time

I'm back from an extended blogging break to offer some predictions on today's election (as usual, based on a lot of data but undoubtedly skewed by my inveterate optimism):

HOUSE (currently GOP 231, Dems 202, 2 vacancies)

Outcome: Dems 236, GOP 199
Dems +34, GOP -34

Pickups will include WA-08 (Seattle's eastern suburbs), where we've been working tirelessly (OK, occasionally) for challenger Darcy Burner, who will hopefully oust incumbent Dave Reichert in a tight race.

In the aftermath, House GOP leadership will be ousted by their own caucus. Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker in January. Fresh from securing the victory, look for DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel to grab the Majority Whip position.

SENATE (currently GOP 55, Dems 44, Ind 1)
Outcome: Dems 49, GOP 49, Ind 2 (Sanders and Lieberman) Dems +5, Ind +1, GOP -6

Specifically (incumbents in CAPS):

Pennsylvania: Casey (D) beats SANTORUM (R)
Montana: Tester (D) beats BURNS (R)
Ohio: Brown (D) beats DEWINE (R)
Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) beats CHAFEE (R)
Virginia: Webb (D) beats ALLEN (R)

I'm fairly confident about these five pickups. All Dem incumbents will win (including Menendez in NJ) and we will hold on to D open seats (although Cardin may have a narrow margin over Steele in MD). I do not see us taking TN or AZ, although these could be closer than expected. Control of the Senate will therefore come down to:

Missouri: McCaskill (D) beats TALENT (R)

This one will go down to the wire and may not be decided tonight.

Assuming that Lieberman keeps his promise (heh heh) to caucus with the Ds, that would give us 51-49 control. If not, or if I'm wrong about any of the races above, then there's a 50-50 split, with Dick Cheney breaking the tie in favor of continued GOP control. The problem for the Ds is that we have to win three or four very tight races, and with TN fading, there's not much in the second tier that could step up an bail us out in a pinch. So though I'm optimistically predicting control of the Senate, there's a strong possibility we end up on the short end of a tie.

GOVERNORS (currently GOP 28, Dems 22)
Outcome: Dems 27, GOP 23 (Dems +5)

Notable pickups include NY and OH. (AND the OH Secretary of State's office -- remember this in '08).

There's lots of voter suppression, deceptive robocalls, electronic voting machine hijinks, etc. The GOP hasn't met a dirty trick they won't use in this election. So that's the X factor. I'm hoping it won't sway any critical outcomes.

Keep in mind that I confidently predicted Kerry would win 303 electoral votes. So apply liberal amounts of sodium chloride and keep your fingers crossed.